Full Olympic predictions: every Australian we think will win a medal in Paris

AT THE TIME of writing, oddsmakers have Australia’s over/under for gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics at 13.5. We’ll admit some patriotic bias, but we think that’s a gross underestimation of the nation’s prospects. For starters, the Australian swim team looks set to finally finish ahead of their rival Americans in medals in the pool for the first time in 68 years. The athletics contingent seems unusually strong, and there are a number of previous gold medallists returning to defend their titles. That’s not even including a number of dark horses who will doubtlessly present themselves over the course of the Games. Yes, we’ll gladly take the over.

Nielsen’s Gracenote, the most prominent of all medal projectors, currently predicts that Australia will finish with 15 gold medals and 54 in total, which would be our second biggest haul of all time, biggest since Sydney 2000, and good enough for fifth place on their projected medal table.

The problem with Gracenote, though, is that  the data it uses for its projections is taken from world championship results during the latest Olympic cycle (or since the last Games in 2021). This is a good way to determine who some of the frontrunners for medals can be, but it doesn’t take into account how much can change between a world championship and an Olympics. The winner of a world championship in late 2021 might not even be competing anymore in 2024. And any number of young guns could have risen into contention in that timespan. Furthermore, one flukish run at a world championship when the leading contenders may have had a off day or even been injured does not guarantee a medal when everyone is at full strength.

So, rather than relying on stone-cold data, we’re taking a look at every Australian team and athlete we think will win a medal based on factors like past performances, strength of competition and crucially, recent form. We don’t expect to get everything 100 per cent correct, but we do think we can provide a more accurate picture than data-driven analysis. Let’s get into it.

Which Australian athletes will win medals at the Paris Olympics

Athletics

Women’s 1500m

Athlete: Jess Hull

Predicted medal: Silver

Australia is going to be relying heavily on its female athletes for medals in track and field events, starting with Jess Hull, who couldn’t have picked a better time to be hitting career bests. A few weeks ago, Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon broke the world record in the 1500 metres, but Hull stayed with her right up until the final straight to finish in second place. A week later, Hull broke the 2000 metre world record. Unfortunately, the 2000 metres isn’t an Olympic event, so the 1500 will have to do. On recent form, Hull looks like the only athlete who can challenge Kipyegon for gold.

Women’s High Jump

Athlete(s): Nicola Olyslagers and Eleanor Patterson

Predicted medal(s): Silver and bronze

Olyslagers won silver at the Tokyo Games – her name was Nicola McDermott back then, if that refreshes your memory – and we think she’ll match that effort in Paris. Her fellow Australian Eleanor Patterson has won gold and silver at the two most recent Athletics world championships, so both could figure in the medals in Paris. The only problem is that Ukrainian Yaroslava Mahuchikh set the world record in the event just this month. So, barring an inexplicable collapse from Mahuchikh, gold is likely off limits.

Women’s Pole Vault

Athlete: Nina Kennedy

Predicted medal: Gold

Gold medals are rare for Australia in athletics. In fact, Sally Pearson was our last athletics gold medallist, way back in 2012. Nina Kennedy has as good a chance of any of ending the streak though. Kennedy shared the gold medal in pole vault at the 2023 athletics world championships with American vaulter Katie Moon. Both are head and shoulders above their competition and either could win gold, but at 33, Moon is at the end of her career while Kennedy is just hitting her prime at 27.

Women’s Javelin

Athlete: Mackenzie Little

Predicted medal: Bronze

Little took bronze at the last athletics world championships and she can absolutely better that result in Paris. The women’s javelin is about as open as any event on the program, with a number of top athletes capable of winning gold. For now, we’re picking Little to win bronze, but don’t be surprised if she comes out on top.

Women’s 20km Race Walk

Athlete: Jemima Montag

Predicted medal: Silver

Leaning on precedent again here, Jemima Montag finished second in the 20km race walk at the most recent world championships, and there’s no reason why she can’t do the same on the Olympic stage. She’s more than capable of winning gold, but for now we’re going to stick to the proven results.

Basketball

Women’s Basketball

Predicted medal: Silver

As much as we’d love to put the men’s team in here, a tough group and an ageing core make a medal unlikely. The women on the other hand are starting to look like the side with the best chance of taking down the formidable Team USA.

The Opals had won a medal at five consecutive Olympics before beginning their current 12-year drought. Now, the team looks stronger than it has in some time, with a lineup consisting entirely of high level WNBA players. The late withdrawal of sharpshooter Rebecca Allen due to injury will sting, but the ascension of 21-year-old Jade Melbourne should more than make up for the loss. We have the Opals continuing their hot form from preparation games all the way to the Olympic final, before being downed by Team USA.

BMX Freestyle

Men’s BMX Freestyle

Athlete: Logan Martin

Predicted medal: Silver

Logan Martin became the first ever Olympic gold medallist for men’s BMX Freestyle at the Tokyo Games, but as much as it pains us, we’re not predicting that he will go back-to-back. Martin absolutely still has the requisite talent to claim the top honour, but at the two world championships since the last Olympics, he’s only claimed one silver medal. We have to go with form here.

BMX Racing

Men’s BMX Racing

Athlete: Izaac Kennedy

Predicted medal: Bronze

BMX racing is one the most unpredictable sports on the Olympic program, so attempting to predict it is slightly farcical. At any moment, a rider can crash out and have their medal dreams immediately crushed in this unforgiving sport. Kennedy won gold the most recent world cup, but he did it by only winning one of the six races. Suffice to say that there’s no consensus on who will come out on top here, but it could be Kennedy.

Women’s BMX Racing

Athlete: Saya Sakakibara

Predicted medal: Gold

Halfway through the semi-finals of the Tokyo Games, Saya Sakakibara was in first position and looked set to qualify for the Olympic final at her first ever Games. Then, a rival clipped her back wheel, causing Sakakibara to crash out of the race before being stretchered off the course. Sakakibara’s last Olympic campaign ended in heartbreak, but she’s since won two BMX racing world cup titles in 2023 and 2024. At this year’s world cup, the 24-year-old won four of six events and finished second in the other two. She’ll be the favourite to win gold in Paris, with a chance to complete a remarkable story of redemption.

Canoeing

Women’s K-1 Slalom

Athlete: Jess Fox

Predicted medal: Gold

Some sports have never ending debates over which athlete is the sport’s GOAT. Canoe slalom doesn’t have that issue, because it’s inarguably Jess Fox. Australia’s flagbearer has so many world championships it isn’t funny and has four Olympic medals to go with them. She took bronze in this event in Tokyo and will be the red hot favourite to claim gold this time around.

Women’s C-1 Slalom

Athlete: Jess Fox

Predicted medal: Gold

We’ve just given Jess Fox her flowers, so no need for another introduction here. Fox won gold in this event in Tokyo despite preferring the K-1. Such is the highly unpredictable nature of slalom events that opportunity often outweighs expectation, with Fox being denied gold in the K-1 due to an obstacle penalty before stepping up to win gold in the C-1. She’s favoured to repeat in Paris.

Women’s KX-1 Slalom

Athlete: Jess Fox

Predicted medal: Silver

Another predicted medal for Jess Fox. The KX-1 is a new event, and while it isn’t Fox’s strongest, she’ll still be in medal contention. Predicting a complete sweep of the slalom medals for Fox is a little too brazen for our temperament, so we’ll say silver in this one.

Men’s K-1 1000m Sprint

Athlete: Tom Green

Predicted medal: Bronze

Thomas Green was one half of the ‘Green and Jean’ duo that won gold in the K-2 1000m event in Tokyo. He’s since honed is craft in the solo event over the same distance and will have a good shot at a medal.

Men’s K-2 500m Sprint

Athlete: Jean van der Westhuyzen and Tom Green

Predicted medal: Silver

Now to the actual duo, Green and Jean will not attempt to defend their gold medal from Tokyo. Instead, they’ll compete in a shorter distance, where they’ll be just as likely to end up on the podium. The pair haven’t been overly successful in this distance at recent world cups though, so we’ve tempered our expectations with a prediction of silver.

Cycling

Women’s Time Trial

Athlete: Grace Brown

Predicted medal: Silver

Grace Brown is a time trial specialist if there ever was one. She won gold in the event at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and silver at each of the last two world championships. We believe she’ll at least match that mark in Paris.

Men’s Team Sprint

Predicted medal: Silver

Led by Matthew Glaetzer – who overcame Thyroid cancer in 2019 – and Matthew Richardson, the Australian men’s sprint team features some of the fastest riders in the world and will be a force to be reckoned with in Paris, rivalled only by perhaps the Netherlands.

Men’s Keirin

Athlete(s): Matthew Richardson and Matthew Glaetzer

Predicted medal: Silver and bronze

Like we said, Richardson and Glaetzer are some of the fastest riders in the world, but we think their specialties are primarily suited to the Keirin at this stage, where either one of them – or both – could medal.

Women’s Madison

Athlete(s): Georgia Baker and Alex Manly

Predicted medal: Silver

This duo took out silver at last year’s track cycling world championships and there’s no reason why they can’t do the same in Paris.

Diving

Men’s 10m Platform

Athlete: Cassiel Rousseau

Predicted medal: Gold

Australia isn’t exactly known for its divers – we’ve only produced two Olympic gold medallists in history, most recently in 2008 – but Cassiel Rousseau represents the nation’s best shot at gold since Mathew Mitcham. Rousseau is the reigning 10m platform world champion and will be the favourite to win the event in Paris – and potentially prevent a clean sweep of the diving events by China, just like Mitcham did.

Women’s 3m Synchronised Springboard

Athlete(s): Maddison Keeney and Annabelle Smith

Predicted medal: Silver

Maddi Keeney and Annabelle Smith have consistently been around the medals at world championships and at the Olympics. They won bronze on debut in Rio and took bronze and silver at the two most recent world championships. Expect them to factor into the medals.

Equestrian

Team Eventing

Predicted medal: Bronze

Australia took silver in this event in Tokyo, with two out of three members of that team returning. However, the missing team member is six-time medal winner Sir Andrew Hoy, who became Australia’s oldest ever Olympic medallist in Tokyo. Still, Australia has medalled in this event at six of the last eight Olympics, so don’t expect too much of a backslide.

Field Hockey

Men’s Field Hockey

Predicted medal: Bronze

The top end of men’s field hockey is so competitive that there are seven teams that could realistically win gold. Australia is currently ranked in the middle of that pack at fourth in the world, so winning a medal will take some doing, but it’s definitely achievable. We’ll back our flagbearer Eddie Ockenden to secure another Olympic medal.

Rowing

Women’s Single Sculls

Athlete: Tara Rigney

Predicted medal: Silver

Australia notched four medals (two of them gold) at the Tokyo Olympics, but it would be surprising to see them win as many in Paris, especially as many golds. Tara Rigney is likely our best shot at a place atop the podium though. The 25-year-old was the bronze medallist at the last two world championships and is trending upwards.

Women’s Pair

Athlete(s): Jessica Morrison and Annabelle McIntyre

Predicted medal: Bronze

Morrison and McIntyre were both part of the women’s four team that won gold in Tokyo. Now they’re plying their trade in the pair division and have had a great deal of success in competition to this point.

Rugby 7s

Men’s Rugby 7s

Predicted medal: Gold

We’ll admit that we wouldn’t have picked this two days ago, but felicitous circumstances have worked in Australia’s favour in the men’s 7s. Australia is ranked fourth in the world in 7s, but the top three teams (Argentina, New Zealand and Ireland) have all already been knocked out in the quarterfinal stages, leaving Australia as the next best bet for gold. They’ll now face Fiji, who have won gold in this event at every Games since it was introduced, in the semi-finals. We must stress that this Fijian team isn’t quite at the same level of quality as previous gold medal winning sides, but still present the biggest remaining challenge.

Women’s Rugby 7s

Predicted medal: Silver

With four rounds remaining in the 2023 HSBC 7s season, the Australian women’s team stood 12 points clear of New Zealand in first place. Our neighbours across the Tasman then won every remaining event to clinch the title by a meagre two points, so we have to give the edge to them here, because that’s seriously impressive.

Sailing

Men’s Dinghy

Athlete: Matt Wearn

Predicted medal: Gold

Matt Wearn won gold in Tokyo by a wide margin in this event. Since then, he’s also won gold at two world championships in 2023 and 2024. He’ll be the favourite to continue his run of success with another gold next month.

Women’s Skiff

Athlete(s): Olivia Price and Evie Haseldine

Predicted medal: Bronze

Olivia Price won silver at London 2012, but retired from competitive sailing after failing to qualify for Rio 2016. Haseldine coaxed her out of retirement in 2021 and the pair won bronze in this event at the world championships, meaning another medal 12 years after her first is within Price’s reach.

Skateboarding

Men’s Park

Athlete: Keegan Palmer

Predicted medal: Silver

It was a surprise when Palmer won gold at skateboarding’s debut at the Tokyo Olympics, as the then 18-year-old hadn’t yet announced himself on the X Games tour. Now, Palmer will be one of the favourites to win gold in Paris, but he’ll face heavy competition from Americans Tate Carew and Gavin Bottger.

Women’s Park

Athlete: Arisa Trew

Predicted medal: Silver

She’s only 14 years old, but Arisa Trew is already ranked second in the world for skateboarding in the park discipline. She has a chance to become one of Australia’s youngest ever Olympic medallists.

Women’s Street

Athlete: Chloe Covell

Predicted medal: Bronze

Chloe Covell is another 14-year-old skater in a sport that evidently skews young. She’s ranked sixth in the world, so she’s more of an outside shot at a medal, but she has shown that she can compete with the best at major events. If she were to win gold, Covell would become Australia’s youngest ever gold medallist.

Surfing

Men’s Surfing

Athlete(s): Jack Robinson and Ethan Ewing

Predicted medal(s): Gold and bronze

With Robinson and Ewing currently ranked third and fifth in the World Surf League’s rankings, Australia has a pair of men’s surfers who can figure into medal contention. Robinson has the better chance to win gold of the two, with seven WSL event victories to his name, including one at the exact location where Olympic surfing events will take place. Ewing on the other hand has two career event victories and finished second in last year’s WSL championship. We’re dreaming of an all-Australian final here. Just don’t get in each other’s way boys, we could have a 1-2 finish on our hands.

Women’s Surfing

Athlete: Molly Picklum

Predicted medal: Silver

Molly Picklum, the current world number four at just 21 years of age, has already won two WSL events and is expected to be one of the faces of the sport for the foreseeable future. Her reign as one of the world’s best could begin as early as next week with a medal in Tahiti.

Swimming

Men’s 50m Freestyle

Athlete: Cam McEvoy

Predicted medal: Gold

Just three years ago, Cam McEvoy crashed out of the Tokyo Olympics in the heat stages, finishing 29th overall in the 50-metre freestyle, and 24th in the 100-metre freestyle. He’s since revitalised his career thanks to a revolutionary approach to training, and at 30, he’s the favourite to win the 50m freestyle for his first Olympic gold medal.

Men’s 100m Freestyle

Athlete: Kyle Chalmers

Predicted medal: Bronze

Late last year, Kyle Chalmers told Men’s Health that “by the time Paris rolls around next year, I’ll be in the best shape I’ve ever been in.” Coming from someone who has already won an Olympic gold medal, that’s saying something. Chalmers heads to Paris for what could be his last shot at another medal. He’s only 26, but in swimming, you’re being handed your pension at that age – which is made apparent by the fact that Chalmers’ main competitors for the 100m crown are teenagers.

Men’s 400m Freestyle

Athlete(s): Sam Short and Elijah Winnington

Predicted medals: Silver and bronze

Either one of Short or Winnington is capable of winning gold, with both of them having previously held the world championship title for the event. Although, it will be difficult to surpass Germany’s Lukas Martens, who has swam more than a second faster than either of the Australians in the last 12 months.

Men’s 800m Freestyle

Athlete: Sam Short

Predicted medal: Bronze

Both Short and Winnington will have another shot at gold in the 800m freestyle. But again, we think they’ll fall short. The USA’s Bobby Finke and Ireland’s Daniel Wiffen present formidable obstacles on the Aussies’ path to gold.

Men’s 200m Breaststroke

Athlete: Zac Stubblety-Cook

Predicted medal: Silver

It looks unlikely that Zac Stubblety-Cook will be able to match his gold medal effort from the Tokyo Games. China’s Qin Haiyang is the runaway favourite to win gold in this event, with France’s Leon Marchand and the USA’s Matt Fallon also vying for medals. Silver would be a massive achievement for Stubblety-Cook.

Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

Predicted medal: Silver

Another battle between Australia and the USA for supremacy in the 4x100m freestyle relay is on the horizon. Expect the Kyle Chalmers vs Jack Alexy anchor leg matchup to be must-see TV. Although the USA probably has the stronger all-around team, Chalmers cannot be counted out.

Men’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Predicted medal: Bronze

Australia has a nicely rounded 200m freestyle relay team but no real medal contenders in the individual event, so gold is unlikely here. Still, in a relay it’s the consistency that matters, so a medal is on the cards.

Women’s 50m Freestyle

Athlete: Shayna Jack

Predicted medal: Bronze

Shayna Jack has returned to competitive swimming after a doping ban kept her out of the last Olympics. Her best shot at an individual medal is in the 50m freestyle, but Sweden’s Sarah Sjöström is almost certainly taking the gold, so the best Jack can hope for is silver.

Women’s 100m Freestyle

Athlete: Mollie O’Callaghan

Predicted medal: Gold

Mollie O’Callaghan is the Australian swim team’s brightest rising star. She already won two gold medals in relays at the Tokyo Olympics and now she has her eyes on some individual hardware. The 100m freestyle is her best chance at getting it, as she’s a two-time world champion in the discipline.

Women’s 200m Freestyle

Athlete(s): Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan

Predicted medal: Gold and silver

Attention all Australians, if you only watch one event during the entire Paris Olympics, make it this one. Australia are almost guaranteed to go 1-2 in this race, with both Titmus and O’Callaghan swimming faster than the previous world record time during the Australian Swimming Trials earlier this month. The only question is which of the two will come out on top.

Women’s 400m Freestyle

Athlete: Ariarne Titmus

Predicted medal: Gold

The women’s 400m freestyle is shaping up to be the race of the century with Titmus, queen of the pool Katie Ledecky and swimming’s next big thing Summer McIntosh all going head-to-head. Titmus should win with relative ease, but this race will feature the best of the past, present and future of Olympic swimming, making it a must watch.

Women’s 800m Freestyle

Athlete: Ariarne Titmus

Predicted medal: Silver

Titmus is the only swimmer who can come close to Ledecky in this race, but we still don’t expect it to be that close. Ledecky will likely win gold and Titmus will gladly settle for silver.

Women’s 100m Backstroke

Athlete: Kaylee McKeown

Predicted medal: Gold

American Regan Smith broke Kaylee McKeown’s 100m backstroke world record during the US Olympic swimming trials, but we have to assume McKeown is hungry to get it back. McKeown had recorded the event’s six fastest times before Smith’s swim, so we can’t be certain it wasn’t a one-off. Regardless, McKeown has been known to kick into another gear when a victory is under threat.

Women’s 200m Backstroke

Athlete: Kaylee McKeown

Predicted medal: Gold

This race will likely have a similar outcome to the above, with a battle between McKeown and Regan Smith for gold. Except this time, McKeown’s victory is more assured.

Women’s 200m Butterfly

Athlete: Elizabeth Dekkers

Predicted medal: Bronze

At just 20 years old, Elizabeth Dekkers hasn’t reached her peak yet and isn’t quite ready to contend for gold. She does have a shot at one of the consolatory medals though.

Women’s 200m Individual Medley

Athlete: Kaylee McKeown

Predicted medal: Silver

We wouldn’t be surprised if fatigue starts to set in for McKeown here. She pulled out of this event in Tokyo for fear of burnout and has shown in the past that she prefers to prioritise her backstroke events. For now, she’s the favourite, but she’s not going to breeze to victory under any circumstances.

Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

Predicted medal: Gold

Australia has won this event at three-straight Olympics and that streak is unlikely to end in Paris, with a number of top class swimmers shaping up to be part of the relay team.

Women’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Predicted medal: Gold

This is another event where Australia is almost guaranteed gold, with Titmus and O’Callaghan being the two fastest 200m freestyle swimmers in history.

Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay

Predicted medal: Gold

If everything goes to plan, Australia will have a gold medal winner opening and closing the medley relay with Kaylee McKeown and Mollie O’Callaghan, but the butterfly and breaststroke legs are weak points. Emma McKeon will presumably swim the butterfly and keep the team in contention, but the breaststroke leg is an area of real concern. Still, we’re tipping the girls to get it done.

Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay

Predicted medal: Bronze

Again the problem with Australia’s medley relay team here is that it’s exceptionally strong in some areas but critically weak in others. Kaylee McKeown will swim the backstroke leg with either Kyle Chalmers or Mollie O’Callaghan doing the freestyle segment, but the breaststroke and butterfly legs are up for grabs with no obvious suitors. Expect both the USA and Great Britain to outpace Australia in this one, with their greater breadth of talent.

Tennis

Mixed Doubles

Athlete(s): Ellen Perez and Matt Ebden

Predicted medal: Silver

Ellen Perez is currently tenth in the world for women’s doubles while Matt Ebden is third in men’s, after reaching the top spot for the first time earlier this year. They enter the tournament as the second seed and on paper, should figure into the medals. The only problem is that Olympic tournaments encourage talented singles players who usually stick to the lone game to participate in doubles tournaments in the hope of winning a medal. Ash Barty did it in Tokyo and won bronze, so there’s an air of unpredictability about the doubles. But for now, Ebden and Perez look like they should medal.

Triathlon

Men’s Triathlon

Athlete: Matt Hauser

Predicted medal: Bronze

Matt Hauser has established himself as a consistent force on the global triathlon championship series and has won multiple events at that level. He should be towards the front of the pack during the men’s event, but there are so many medal contenders that it’s really anyone’s race.

Predicted final Australia medal tally

Gold: 17

Silver: 24

Bronze: 19

Total: 60

If everything goes how we say it will, Australia will return home from Paris with 17 gold medals, which would equal our best-ever effort, and 60 total medals, which would be a record haul. This isn’t too far off the Nielsen projections of 15 gold, 23 silver, 16 bronze and 54 total. Accuse us of bias if you will, but we feel we’ve been pretty fair in our assessment. There were plenty of 50-50 situations where we ultimately went against an Australian athlete, which accounts for the number of high number of silver medals.

We can only hope that our predictions will come true.

Related:

24 athletes to watch at the 2024 Paris Olympics

The 15 greatest Australian Olympic moments of all time