LOGICALLY, WE HAVE TO assume that every world record will be surpassed at some point. Human athleticism is advancing at an unprecedented rate and it will continue on that trajectory. As a result, records that were once thought untouchable have started to come tumbling down, and the previously unassailable now seems within reach. That being said, some records will endure for a few more years at least, but others could be broken as soon as, say, the 2024 Paris Olympics, which begin this month.
The Olympics present the ideal stage for a world record to be broken. The Games gather the strongest, fastest, fittest and downright toughest athletes on the planet and have them battle it out for glory. Naturally, this level of competitiveness fosters greatness, pushing athletes to strive for more and in turn, break records.
Paris 2024 looks like it will play to a similar tune as previous Olympics, with multiple world records shattered and new benchmarks set. That’s more likely to occur in some events than others though. These are the most viable candidates.
Men’s Pole Vault
Existing record: 6.24 metres
Potential record breaker: Armand Duplantis
There may not be a more dominant athlete in the world right now than Armand ‘Mondo’ Duplantis. The Swede sits atop World Athletics’ rankings of all track and field athletes, is the defending Olympic champion, a two-time world champion, a two-time world indoor champion and has won three consecutive Diamond League titles. Duplantis is the current world record holder in pole vault, and since first earning that title in 2020, he’s bettered himself on seven occasions – most recently in April of this year. We expect him to at least come close to his best mark next month.
Women’s 200m freestyle
Existing record: 1:52.23
Potential record breaker(s): Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan
The women’s 200m freestyle world record was already reset by Ariarne Titmus at the Australian Olympic trials last month, but we don’t think it’s done moving just yet. Titmus ripped the record right from former holder Mollie O’Callaghan’s hands, who also finished ahead of the previous record in the same race. The Australian duo are set to collide again in Paris, where a gold medal may very well require a record breaking effort. It goes without saying, but the 4x200m freestyle relay world record will also be under threat, with both Titmus and O’Callaghan joining forces on the Australian team.
Women’s 200m sprint
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Existing record: 21.34 seconds
Potential record breaker: Shericka Jackson
One of the longest standing world records in athletics, Florence Griffith-Joyner has owned the women’s 200-metre record since the 1988 Seoul Olympics. Her mark might finally be under threat, with Jamaican sprinter Shericka Jackson coming closer than ever before within the last 12 months. At the 2023 athletics world championships, Jackson won the 200-metre event in a time of 21.41 seconds. She could have her best chance yet at shaving off another 0.07 seconds in Paris.
Women’s 100m backstroke
Existing record: 57.13 seconds
Potential record breaker: Kaylee McKeown
Until last month, Kaylee McKeown had recorded the five fastest ever times in the 100m backstroke. Then Regan Smith took the record from her during the American Olympic swimming trials. So, not only do we know that McKeown has a world record in her – because she’s already set it multiple times before – she now has even more of a reason to chart a career-best, if it makes the difference in winning another gold medal.
Men’s Basketball: most points in a game/most gold medals by an athlete in a team sport
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Existing record(s): 156 and 3
Potential record breaker(s): Team USA and Kevin Durant
Team sports don’t really have world records as such, but they do have records. Namely, Team USA has a chance of breaking its own record for the most points scored in an Olympic basketball game. The Americans set the existing record in 2012, when they defeated Nigeria 156-73. Now they’ll have a shot at bettering it when they face South Sudan in the pool stage in Paris. Credit to South Sudan for qualifying for their first ever Olympic tournament, but at 33rd in the world, they are easily the lowest ranked team in the competition and could be due for a beating. A one-sided matchup awaits.
Elsewhere, Kevin Durant has a chance of becoming the first Olympian to win four gold medals in any team sport. This might sound surprising given that Durant has never really been known as the face of Team USA, but longevity is the biggest factor here. Durant has been a member of the last three USA Olympic basketball teams, who all won gold. Hence why he has a shot at the record.
Weightlifting clean and jerk, men’s 61kg category
Existing record: 176kg
Potential record breaker: Hampton Morris
Three nations dominate the weightlifting disciplines below 89kg: China, North Korea and Indonesia. Athletes from those nations own 14 of the 15 world records within those parameters, but the one they don’t have belongs to 20-year-old American Hampton Morris. Earlier this year, Morris pulled off a 176kg clean and jerk at the IWF world cup, snatching a clean sweep of the records right from Asia’s grasp. At just 20 years of age, Hampton can really only get better, starting with Paris.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on Li Fabin of China, Ri Won-Ju of North Korea and Rizki Juniansyah of Indonesia, who all also set world records at this year’s world cup, which was obviously quite the meet.
Men’s 400m hurdles:
Existing record: 45.94 seconds
Potential record breaker(s): Karsten Warholm, Rai Benjamin and Alison dos Santos
At the Tokyo Games, Norwegian Karsten Warholm obliterated the long standing 400m hurdles record, last set in 1992, by almost a full second. A mark like that would typically be considered unbreakable by any other athlete, for at least a few years, but in the same race, American Rai Benjamin and Brazilian Alison dos Santos also bested the previous world record, coming within reach of Warholm. Nothing puts a world record more at threat than a rivalry between three equally talented potential record breakers, and the trio have since recorded all 17 of the fastest times in the event, and 24 of the top 25.
It’s not just Warholm doing the heavy lifting though. Since the Tokyo Olympics, there have been two athletics world championship. Dos Santos took gold in the first, Benjamin in the second. Take our word for it, the Olympic medallists in 400m hurdles are already decided, the order of them is not. And no record is safe.
Women’s 1500m sprint
Existing record: 3:49.04
Potential record breaker: Faith Kipyegon
Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon broke the world record in the 1500m earlier this month, and she could hardly be peaking at a better time. Kipyegon will be the heavy favourite to win gold in Paris and potentially set another record, but she isn’t as far ahead as her competition as you may believe. Australian runner Jess Hull stayed with Kipyegon in her record-setting race until the final straight, eventually finishing in a time of 3:50.83.
Men’s Shot-Put
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Existing record: 23.56m
Potential record breaker: Ryan Crouser
When he first set the shot-put world record, Ryan Crouser improved upon the previous mark by a massive 25 centimetres. He’s now added another 19 centimetres to it and insists he’s still getting better, recently debuting the ‘Crouser slide’, where he starts his drive low, slow and off centre, using the entirety of his build-up to maximise momentum and leave no power on the table. We can only expect his personal bests to improve once he masters the new technique.
Men’s 400m individual medley
Existing record: 4:02.50
Potential record breaker: Léon Marchand
It takes a special kind of athlete to unseat the great Michael Phelps as the holder of the fastest-ever time in an event. Especially when that record has stood for 15 years and no one else has ever come within a second of it. Léon Marchand is not just a special athlete though, he’s a phenomenal one. The Frenchman broke Phelps’ record by more than a second at last year’s world championships and he’s still only 22. Now he has a chance to win gold and improve upon his record on home soil.
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